Josh Turek win the Senate race in Iowa priced at 44.0% on Kalshi, up 3.0 points, on $3.2M traded

Turek contract moves higher

Kalshi’s contract on Josh Turek winning the Senate race in Iowa was priced at 44.0%, up 3.0 probability points over 24 hours, with $3.2M traded. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the upward political moves on its movers board.

The snapshot was taken on Oct. 28, 2026, at 13:07 UTC, ahead of the story’s publication at 9:39 AM ET. The increase left the market-implied probability below 50%, despite the shift toward a Turek victory.

What the snapshot captures

According to PredictionBubbles, its board draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and updates every 15 minutes. Rankings reflect the size of each contract’s 24-hour probability-point change, rather than its relative percentage gain; trading volume does not affect that ordering.

The scan covered 2,042 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Its table displayed the top 150 of 527 markets that had moved at least one probability point over the previous 24 hours. Markets without a valid day-old comparison were excluded.

The supplied material does not identify a poll, announcement or other event behind Turek’s increase. It also does not specify the period covered by the contract’s $3.2M traded figure or provide order-book depth, limiting what that number alone says about the trading conditions behind the move.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level are distinct: The 3.0-point rise indicates a higher market price for a Turek win, while 44.0% remains below an even-chance assessment.
• Volume is context, not a ranking input: The $3.2M traded figure accompanies the move, but PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by probability-point changes.
• The catalyst remains unspecified: The snapshot establishes repricing, not why traders changed their assessment or whether the increase will persist.