Polymarket assigns 78.5% probability to Israel striking four countries

A Polymarket contract on Israel striking 4 countries in 2026 was priced at 78.5%, with $7.8M traded, according to the supplied World Monitor summary.

A snapshot of geopolitical pricing

World Monitor’s live board was read on Nov. 5 at 10:20 AM UTC. The snapshot covered 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets, with $204.9M traded in total across that group.

The Israel contract’s $7.8M trading figure is distinct from that broader total. Likewise, the 78.5% price applies to the specific Polymarket contract, not to the combined set of markets on the board.

The supplied item was published on Nov. 5, 2026, at 5:24 AM ET. Its summary is incomplete, and no source links were provided, leaving the contract’s detailed resolution criteria and price history unavailable in the supplied material.

What it means for prediction markets

• The price favors the stated outcome: A 78.5% implied probability puts Israel striking 4 countries in 2026 above an even-chance assessment, but does not establish that it will happen.
• Trading volume is not a measure of certainty: The $7.8M figure records activity in the contract; it does not independently validate the probability.
• Resolution details remain important: Without the contract rules, the supplied material does not establish how qualifying strikes or the country count are defined.
• This is a snapshot, not a trend: No earlier prices are supplied, so the figures alone cannot show whether expectations were rising or falling.