Ceasefire odds rise as Iran blockade announcement market retreats
WinDailySports lists the market on the Israel and Iran ceasefire continuing through November 4 among the biggest movers in the last 24 hours, up four points to 94 percent. A related market on the United States announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by November 2 fell four points to 6 percent.
The market on the Israel and Iran ceasefire continuing through November 4 reached 94 percent, rising four points over the last 24 hours, according to WinDailySports.
WinDailySports placed the contract among the biggest movers during that period. Its update was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 12:15 AM ET.
Related contracts move in opposite directions
A related market on the United States announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by November 2 moved lower. According to WinDailySports, that contract fell four points to 6 percent.
The two prices concern distinct outcomes and deadlines: continuation of the Israel and Iran ceasefire through November 4, and a United States announcement about ending the Iranian blockade by November 2. Their opposing moves should not be read as a single assessment of the broader situation.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 94 percent price reflects strong market expectations that the ceasefire will continue through November 4, not confirmation that it will.
- The 6 percent price concerns a United States announcement by November 2, rather than the ceasefire’s continuation.
- Both contracts moved four points in the last 24 hours, but the supplied reporting does not identify a catalyst for either change.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- WinDailySports
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to WinDailySports”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.