Year-end Israel–Iran ceasefire odds fall as shorter-term contracts price higher
The December 31 ceasefire contract prices continuation at 30 percent on the WinDailySports live board. The longer-dated contract sits far below the early November ceasefire prices, and it fell 7.5 points in 24 hours.
The contract on the Israel and Iran ceasefire continuing through December 31 stood at 30 percent on the WinDailySports live board, according to WinDailySports. Its price fell 7.5 points in 24 hours.
A gap between near-term and year-end pricing
The update, published Nov 1, 2026 · 1:30 AM ET, placed the December 31 contract far below the early November ceasefire prices. The supplied summary does not give exact prices for those shorter-dated contracts.
That difference shows a distinction between pricing for continuation into early November and continuation through December 31. The longer-dated contract reflects substantially lower implied odds for the latter outcome.
What the price move establishes
The 7.5-point decline establishes a downward shift in the December 31 contract over the reported 24-hour period. The available material does not identify a catalyst or provide trading-volume information, limiting conclusions about what drove the move.
What it means for prediction markets
- Time horizon matters: Early November ceasefire pricing should not be treated as interchangeable with the December 31 contract, which stood at 30 percent.
- Direction is clearer than cause: The reported 7.5-point decline signals lower implied odds over 24 hours, but the summary does not explain why.
- The comparison remains incomplete: Without exact early November prices, the size of the gap between the contracts cannot be calculated from the supplied material.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- WinDailySports
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to WinDailySports”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.