Iran full airspace closure by December 31, 2026 priced at 41.0% on Polymarket, up 3.0 points, on $732K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Iran full-airspace-closure contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the lead.…
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Polymarket’s contract on a full closure of Iran’s airspace by December 31, 2026 was priced at 41.0%, up 3.0 probability points over 24 hours, with $732K traded, in the supplied October 27, 2026 update published at 5:54 AM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among upward moves in its political/election category. The increase reflects a higher market-implied probability, although the price remained below 50%.
What the snapshot establishes
PredictionBubbles’ movers board used venue data read on 27 Oct 2026, 09:44 UTC. The service refreshes every 15 minutes and compares prices over a 24-hour window, drawing on Polymarket and Kalshi.
According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covered 2,042 markets with lifetimes longer than 14 days. Its main table displayed the top 150 of 511 markets that had moved at least one probability point. Rankings depend on the size of the probability-point change, not trading volume or liquidity.
The supplied material does not identify a news event behind the Iran contract’s rise or provide its detailed settlement criteria. It also does not specify the period covered by the headline’s $732K traded figure. The available evidence therefore establishes a repricing, rather than an independently reported change in Iran’s airspace status.
What it means for prediction markets
Size of the move: The 3.0-point increase measures a change in implied probability, not a 3.0% relative gain.
Volume is separate context: The $732K traded figure does not establish market depth or explain what drove the price change.
Resolution details remain important: The deadline is December 31, 2026, but the supplied material does not define what qualifies as a full airspace closure.
Snapshot, not confirmation: The 41.0% price records traders’ assessment at the reported time; it is not evidence that a closure has occurred.