Iran enrichment end by Dec 31 priced at 3.5%

Iran contract falls to 3.5%

Polymarket’s contract on Iran ending enrichment by Dec 31 was priced at 3.5%, down 5.5 percentage points, with $1.9M traded, according to the supplied market summary published Oct 18, 2026, at 8:09 AM ET.

The figures show a downward repricing of the deadline-specific outcome. The supplied material does not identify a news event behind the decline or include the contract’s detailed settlement criteria.

Reading the move

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers tracker measures changes over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, refreshing every 15 minutes. The supplied source page lists its venue-data timestamp as 18 Oct 2026, 12:37 UTC.

The tracker ranks contracts by the absolute size of their probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes. Trading volume provides separate context and does not affect that ranking. The supplied summary does not specify the measurement period for the Iran contract’s $1.9M traded figure.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline matters: The 3.5% price concerns an enrichment end by Dec 31, not an outcome without a time limit.
• The decline is a price signal: A 5.5-point fall indicates lower market-implied odds, but does not establish what caused traders to reassess the contract.
• Volume is not liquidity: The $1.9M traded figure alone does not establish order-book depth or how readily the displayed price could be traded.
• Resolution details remain a gap: Without the settlement criteria, the supplied material cannot establish precisely what would qualify as an enrichment end.