Indiana data-center moratorium contract heats up again: 17.5%, up 8 points, on $2.7M traded

The Polymarket contract on an Indiana data-center moratorium reached a market-implied probability of 17.5%, with an 8-point gain and $2.7M traded, according to the supplied PredictionBubbles update published Oct 14, 2026, at 9:54 PM ET. Its “Heating up” board placed the contract among markets showing unusually strong current activity.

That reading superseded an earlier snapshot of 16.5%, up 7 points, with $2.6M traded. The latest figures show further repricing toward the moratorium outcome, though the market still assigns it a relatively low probability.

What the activity ranking measures

According to PredictionBubbles, its activity ranking primarily compares a market’s trading over the past 24 hours with its own usual pace. Probability movement is a secondary input, while an approaching resolution date can provide a small additional boost. The score runs from 0 to 100 and does not assess whether an outcome is likely or a price is correct.

The board reports changes in probability points over 24 hours, rather than percentage changes. Its volume figure represents total trading where the venue supplies that data—not trading confined to the latest day, current order-book liquidity or the value of outstanding positions. PredictionBubbles refreshes its price data every 15 minutes.

Policy details remain unspecified

The supplied material does not identify a policy development behind the Indiana contract’s move. It also omits the contract’s precise resolution criteria and deadline, limiting what can be concluded about which government action would qualify as a moratorium.

What it means for prediction markets

• Repricing is not confirmation: The 17.5% reading reflects traders’ current assessment, not evidence that Indiana has adopted a moratorium.
• Activity and probability are separate signals: Placement on the “Heating up” board indicates unusual trading and movement, not an endorsement of the outcome.
• Volume needs context: The $2.7M total does not establish how much liquidity is available now.
• Settlement terms matter: Without the exact criteria and deadline, the connection between any future policy announcement and contract resolution remains unclear.