Gunner Stockton win the Heisman Trophy priced at 7.0% on Kalshi, up 5 points, on $1.1M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, refreshed to its Oct. 19, 20:14 UTC snapshot, lists the Stockton Heisman contract among its upward sports moves, in a sports markets…
Gunner Stockton’s Heisman Trophy contract on Kalshi was priced at 7.0%, up 5 probability points, with $1.1M traded, according to the supplied market update. PredictionBubbles’ movers board placed the contract among its upward-moving sports markets in the Oct. 19, 20:14 UTC snapshot.
A repricing, with limited context
The move represents a change in traders’ pricing over 24 hours, rather than a 5% relative increase. Despite the rise, the contract’s 7.0% implied probability still puts a Stockton victory well below an even chance.
The supplied material does not identify a sporting development or other catalyst behind the change. It also does not specify the measurement period for the headline’s $1.1M traded figure, limiting what that number can establish about activity during the repricing.
How the board measures movement
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers rankings compare probability-point changes across Polymarket and Kalshi, using venue prices refreshed every 15 minutes. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine a contract’s position in the rankings.
The supplied source page carries a later timestamp—19 Oct 2026, 20:45 UTC—than the snapshot cited in the summary. It describes a ranking universe of 2,021 markets that remain live longer than 14 days, but the supplied page text does not reproduce Stockton’s individual listing. The later refresh therefore does not independently confirm the earlier contract figures.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction and level are different signals: A 5-point rise indicates stronger market pricing for Stockton, while 7.0% remains a low implied probability.
- Turnover is not market depth: The $1.1M traded figure does not, by itself, establish liquidity or show how much trading accompanied the 24-hour move.
- Timing matters: The Oct. 19, 20:14 UTC snapshot and the source page’s 20:45 UTC refresh should not be treated as interchangeable.
- The catalyst remains unverified: The supplied evidence establishes a reported repricing, not why traders changed their assessment.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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