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Polymarket raises odds of GPT Astra 6.1+ arriving before November 15

A Polymarket contract on a possible GPT Astra 6.1+ release showed a 44 percent probability of one before November 15 at 2:28 a.m. Eastern on November 1, up 12 points over 24 hours. The contract put a release before November 30 at 65 percent, up 4 points, and its label describes a market question, not an official OpenAI product name.

A Polymarket contract tracking a possible GPT Astra 6.1+ release assigned a 44 percent probability to a launch before November 15, according to TokenPost. The reading was recorded at 2:28 a.m. Eastern on November 1.

The probability had risen 12 points over 24 hours. That left the earlier release window below 50 percent despite the increase.

Later deadline carries higher odds

The contract priced a release before November 30 at 65 percent, up 4 points, according to TokenPost. The later deadline therefore carried a higher implied probability, while the November 15 deadline registered the larger reported increase.

The GPT Astra 6.1+ wording describes the market’s question, not an official OpenAI product name. The prices reflect expectations around that question rather than confirmation of a named product or its release schedule.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 44 percent and 65 percent readings distinguish expectations for two deadlines; neither establishes that a release will occur.
  • The 12-point increase for November 15 exceeded the 4-point increase for November 30, showing a larger shift in pricing for the earlier window.
  • The market label should not be treated as an OpenAI product announcement when interpreting the odds.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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