Democratic edge widens across governor markets as expected total rises
The governor board has moved up from 22 Democratic-led races and 28.4 expected governorships earlier in the evening, with Democrats now favoured in two-thirds of the 36 governorships on the ballot.
Democrats are now favoured in 24 of the 36 governor races on the ballot this year, according to Polyguana. That puts the party ahead in two-thirds of the contests.
Governor board shifts toward Democrats
Earlier in the evening, Democrats led in 22 races. The update, published Nov 3, 2026, at 8:45 PM ET, shows that count rising to 24.
The board’s expected Democratic governorship total also increased, moving from 28.4 earlier in the evening to 29.8, according to Polyguana.
The two measures describe different aspects of the board: one counts races in which Democrats are favoured, while the other expresses an expected governorship total. Neither represents a confirmed election result.
What it means for prediction markets
- Both the number of Democratic-favoured races and the expected governorship total moved higher, indicating a broader shift toward Democrats on the governor board.
- The summary does not identify which races changed or provide individual market probabilities, limiting any assessment of where the shift originated.
Sources & attribution
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- Polyguana
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