Gianluca Cadenasso wins priced at 76% on Kalshi, on $1.1M traded, in a newly listed market

Cadenasso contract draws $1.1M in trading

A newly listed Kalshi tennis contract on Gianluca Cadenasso winning was priced at a market-implied probability of 76%, with $1.1M traded, in the Oct 16, 2026 · 2:39 PM ET snapshot.

According to the supplied summary of PredictionBubbles’ new-markets board, the contract had been created about 14 hours earlier and was due to resolve in about 13 days 21 hours. Those figures place substantial trading activity alongside a short listing history, but do not establish how the price has changed since opening.

What the available data establishes

PredictionBubbles aggregates prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and refreshes its data every 15 minutes, according to its website. Its supplied overview covers 2136 open markets across 9 categories, with individual market pages offering price histories.

The supplied page text does not identify Cadenasso’s opponent, the tournament or the contract’s settlement rules. It also provides no contract-specific price history or 24-hour probability change, leaving the direction and scale of any repricing unestablished.

The $1.1M figure measures trading volume, not the amount currently available on the order book or the value of outstanding positions. PredictionBubbles distinguishes those measures as volume, liquidity and open interest; the supplied material gives only the first for this contract.

What it means for prediction markets

• The 76% price is a market assessment, not a guaranteed result. It indicates traders favor a Cadenasso win under the contract’s terms.
• Turnover does not establish market depth. The $1.1M traded figure alone cannot show current liquidity or outstanding exposure.
• The countdown is not a substitute for settlement terms. With resolution listed in about 13 days 21 hours, the missing matchup details and rules remain important context.
• A fresh listing is not evidence of momentum. Without an opening price or subsequent price history, the snapshot cannot establish whether confidence in Cadenasso has increased or declined.