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Flávio Bolsonaro priced at 88% for Brazil's 2026 presidential election

Action Network puts Bolsonaro at 88% vs Lula da Silva at 11%, on about $581K in 24-hour flow.

Bolsonaro leads the market snapshot

Flávio Bolsonaro was priced at 88% to win Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, compared with 11% for Lula da Silva, according to Action Network figures cited in the supplied summary.

The snapshot accompanied an update published Oct 13, 2026, at 5:54 AM ET. The reported prices place Bolsonaro firmly ahead in market expectations, rather than measuring either candidate’s share of the vote.

Trading activity and data limits

The summary put 24-hour flow at about $581K. That figure provides a measure of recent activity but does not establish whether the trading pushed Bolsonaro’s price higher or lower.

The supplied Action Network page extract does not show the Brazil election contract’s underlying listing, historical prices or settlement terms. The available material therefore supports a snapshot of the reported pricing, not an explanation of what drove it.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A strong favorite, not a settled outcome: The reported 88% price favors Bolsonaro heavily but still leaves uncertainty.
  • Activity is not direction: About $581K in 24-hour flow does not, by itself, demonstrate fresh support for either candidate.
  • Contract details remain important: The provided extract does not establish the exchange hosting this contract or the rules governing its resolution.
BrazilElectionsPredictionMarkets

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Actionnetwork (actionnetwork.com)https://actionnetwork.com/prediction-markets/markets

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