NFC West flips: 49ers jump 19 points to about 60% to win the division

San Francisco has strengthened its position in the NFC West prediction markets, reaching 60% on Kalshi and 59% on Polymarket in the Oct. 13, 2026 reading, according to iPredicta. The 49ers’ cross-venue average rose 19 percentage points from Oct. 6.

Seattle moved sharply in the opposite direction. The defending Super Bowl champions were priced at 19% on Kalshi and 18% on Polymarket, with their average down 12 percentage points over the same period.

A clearer favorite emerges

The latest prices put San Francisco well ahead of Seattle on both exchanges, with only a one-point difference between venues for each team. iPredicta recorded the prices on Oct. 13, 2026 at 10:38 UTC and measures weekly changes using the average of the two venues’ readings.

The division’s preseason backdrop was different: the LA Rams entered the season as favorites for Super Bowl LXI before losing their opening game in Australia to the 49ers, according to iPredicta. Its reporting places the Arizona Cardinals among the least likely division winners in the league. The supplied update does not give current Rams or Cardinals probabilities.

Historical spreads need a date check

The close agreement in the latest 49ers prices contrasts with iPredicta’s Sept. 13 snapshot. At that point, Polymarket’s San Francisco contract had a bid of 23 and an ask of 35—a twelve-point spread—while Kalshi showed 35 to 36. Those historical quotes describe an earlier market, not the cost of trading at the Oct. 13 reading.

At the latest snapshot, Polymarket’s NFC West probabilities totaled 100.6%, with $47,568 traded over the market’s lifetime. iPredicta also retains commentary describing a much tighter three-team contest; the dated Oct. 13 figures support a substantially stronger position for San Francisco.

What it means for prediction markets

• The weekly shift is substantial: San Francisco’s 19-point rise and Seattle’s 12-point decline refer to changes in cross-venue averages, not percentage growth.
• The venues broadly agree: Kalshi and Polymarket differ by just one percentage point on both the 49ers and Seahawks.
• Quoted probabilities are not a complete execution picture: The supplied material does not include Oct. 13 bid-ask spreads, and Polymarket’s $47,568 volume is cumulative rather than daily.
• Use dated readings over older commentary: September quotes and descriptions of a tightly grouped field should not be treated as the current NFC West market.