Texas poll puts Talarico ahead as late deciders lean Republican
Action Network reports the final New York Times and Siena College poll, conducted October 23 to November 1 among 1,215 Texans, put James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 7 points, but voters who decided only in the last month favoured Republicans by a 9-point margin across the seven battlegrounds surveyed.
According to Action Network, the final New York Times and Siena College poll put James Talarico 7 points ahead of Ken Paxton in Texas.
The poll was conducted October 23 to November 1 among 1,215 Texans. Action Network’s update was published Nov 3, 2026 · 1:15 PM ET.
Texas lead contrasts with late-decider pattern
Across the seven battlegrounds surveyed, voters who made their choice only in the last month favoured Republicans by a 9-point margin, according to Action Network.
Those findings describe different groups: the Talarico–Paxton margin concerns Texas respondents, while the Republican advantage concerns late-deciding voters across seven battlegrounds. The latter should not be read as a Texas-specific result.
What it means for prediction markets
- For contracts tied to Talarico and Paxton, the 7-point polling lead is the directly relevant Texas finding; the broader late-decider result measures a separate group.
- For battleground contracts, the 9-point Republican advantage among late deciders provides context, but the supplied summary offers no individual battleground breakdown.
- Neither margin is a win probability. The summary supplies no market prices against which to compare the polling.
Sources & attribution
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