Fed decision in October is the top market by 24-hour volume at $1.4M, with no change at 81%

The October Fed decision contract led Polydict’s market rankings with $1.4M in trading volume over 24 hours, according to polydict.app. The displayed probability of no change was 81%, with the market scheduled to end on Oct 29, 2026.

Fed contract leads the volume table

The figures reflect Polydict’s snapshot of Polymarket odds as of Oct 14, 04:50 AM UTC. The listing showed four additional outcomes for the Fed contract but did not provide their individual prices. It therefore offers a view of activity and the no-change probability, rather than a complete breakdown of expectations for the decision.

The Fed market ranked ahead of Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays and the UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion market, each of which recorded $1.1M in 24-hour volume. Their displayed outcomes were Over at 99% and Barcelona at 24%, respectively, according to Polydict.

Next in the rankings were Warriors vs. Lakers, with $867K in volume and Lakers at 92%, and Ballon d Or Winner 2026, with $813K and Harry Kane at 62%. The comparison places the Fed contract at the top of a table spanning monetary policy, sports, politics and other events—not merely among Fed-related contracts.

What the snapshot establishes

Polydict says the markets it lists use Polymarket’s order book and settle under Polymarket’s contracts. Shares are priced between $0 and $1; a winning share pays $1, while a losing share pays nothing. Resolution depends on the applicable market rules and resolution source.

The supplied listing contains no earlier observations for the October Fed contract. It establishes the market’s volume lead and 81% no-change pricing at the stated timestamp, but does not show whether that probability had risen or fallen, or what drove the trading activity.

What it means for prediction markets

• Activity and probability measure different things: The $1.4M figure captures 24-hour trading volume; 81% is the displayed market-implied probability for no change.
• Alternative outcomes remain unspecified: Four other outcomes appear in the listing, but their prices are absent, limiting conclusions about how traders priced possible policy changes.
• The endpoint is contract-specific: Oct 29, 2026 is the listed market end date. Settlement remains governed by Polymarket’s rules and resolution source.
• This is a snapshot, not a trend: The data supports a first-place volume ranking at the stated time, not a claim that expectations were shifting toward no change.