Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch priced at 66% on Polymarket, up 4.5 points, on $657K traded
PredictionBubbles ranks the launch-valuation contract among the day's upward moves — a contract not featured in any earlier edition today, in a crypto category distinct…
Polymarket traders priced the probability of Extended’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $150M one day after launch at 66%, up 4.5 probability points over 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles. Reported trading volume stood at $657K.
The update, published Oct 16, 2026 at 7:54 PM ET, placed the crypto launch-valuation contract among the day’s upward movers. According to the supplied summary, it had not appeared in an earlier edition that day.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks changes in market-implied probability rather than relative percentage gains. Extended’s 4.5-point increase therefore describes a shift in the price assigned to the outcome—not a 4.5% increase in its valuation.
The tracker draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes. The supplied page’s snapshot was read from the venues on 16 Oct 2026, 23:45 UTC, with rankings spanning 1,999 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify.
What the available data establishes
The $657K trading figure provides context for the repricing, but volume does not determine a contract’s position in the movers rankings, according to PredictionBubbles. Those rankings depend on the size of the probability-point change.
The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for Extended’s move or provide the contract’s detailed settlement rules. The evidence establishes a higher market price for the specified valuation outcome, rather than confirming what Extended will be worth after launch.
What it means for prediction markets
- The threshold and timing matter: The contract concerns FDV above $150M one day after launch, not a valuation reached at some other point.
- Price is not confirmation: The 66% reading reflects market-implied probability; the outcome remains unresolved.
- Volume and movement measure different things: The $657K traded adds activity context, while the 4.5-point rise measures repricing. Neither supplies the missing catalyst or settlement details.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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