Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election priced at 71.5% on Polymarket, up 3 points, on $172K traded

Olivia Chow’s contract to win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election was priced at 71.5% on Polymarket, up 3 probability points over 24 hours, with $172K traded, according to PredictionBubbles. The update was published Oct 16, 2026 at 8:24 PM ET.

A rise ahead of the contract’s close

PredictionBubbles placed the Chow contract among the day’s upward movers, with about 10 days remaining before its close. The accompanying summary said the contract had not appeared in any earlier edition that day.

The supplied material does not identify a campaign development, poll or announcement behind the increase. The change therefore establishes a shift in traders’ pricing, but not what prompted it.

How the ranking works

PredictionBubbles measures moves in probability points over 24 hours, rather than relative percentage changes. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied page lists a venue-data snapshot of 17 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTC.

The ranking covers 1,993 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes markets without a valid 24-hour comparison. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect a contract’s position in the movement ranking. The $172K traded figure should therefore be read separately from Chow’s 3-point increase.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction, not certainty: The 71.5% price reflects a market-implied probability of a Chow victory, not an election result or an independently verified forecast.
• A defined move: The increase is 3 probability points over 24 hours, not a 3% relative gain.
• Context remains limited: With the contract closing in about 10 days, timing matters, but the supplied material gives neither a confirmed catalyst nor order-book depth to assess the repricing further.