Election trading is growing six times faster than football on Kalshi

Election trading is expanding faster than football trading on Kalshi, according to co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour. RotoWire reported that Mansour put election-volume growth at six times football-volume growth this year compared with last year—a comparison of growth rates, not total trading volume.

Mansour made the remarks ahead of October 7, the second anniversary of Kalshi’s first election market. According to Aldrin Research data cited by RotoWire, Kalshi has processed $1.31 billion in election trades across 1,322 individual markets since the start of 2026.

Election volumes and the 2028 outlook

For Polymarket, the available data begin in April: its U.S. and International platforms have recorded $632.4 million in U.S. election trades across 47 individual markets since then. RotoWire reported that the figures exclude combination trades containing election legs. The different reporting periods limit direct comparisons between the platforms.

Kalshi Politics Head of Growth Ben Freeman said on a Tuesday media call that trading on the 2028 presidential election could reach $10 billion or more, according to RotoWire. He pointed partly to increased participation by hedge funds and financial institutions seeking hedges. Mansour, meanwhile, identified Kalshi’s 2024 legal victory against the CFTC—which enabled election trading on a designated contract market—as the company’s pivotal development, rather than its January 2025 self-certification for Super Bowl 59 trading.

More visibility into pricing and settlement

Kalshi also outlined tools for its midterm election markets, RotoWire reported. These include real-time feeds showing trade sizes and frequency, historical forecast-accuracy measures using Brier scores, and labels identifying markets with lower volume or fewer participants. A centralized midterms dashboard brings together Kalshi forecasts, AP live vote counts, polling averages, FEC fundraising data and campaign news. Brier scores may extend to other categories, including sports, after the election.

On integrity, Kalshi said it requires identifying information, restricts relevant trading by candidates and other election-connected participants, and uses a dedicated surveillance team. It has fined and suspended four congressional candidates this year and said foreign accounts represent less than 1% of its U.S. election trades. According to RotoWire, settlement requires at least four of eight major news organizations, including the AP, to call a race without disagreement; races left unresolved by legal challenges remain open until a winner is officially sworn in.

What it means for prediction markets

• Growth is not market share. Mansour’s six-times comparison does not establish that election trading exceeds football trading in absolute volume.
• Cross-platform totals need context. Kalshi’s figures start in January, while Polymarket’s start in April; combination trades are excluded.
• Market depth and settlement matter. Liquidity labels and activity feeds provide context for price movements, while disputed elections can leave contracts open until a winner takes office.
• The 2028 figure is an outlook, not recorded activity. Freeman’s $10 billion-or-more estimate reflects Kalshi’s expectations, partly tied to institutional participation.