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Midterm wagering expands as concentrated trading raises questions about market signals

An analysis of 21,811 midterm markets by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found traders had wagered more than 220 million dollars on 2026 congressional races through September 30, more than double the 92.4 million dollars in all of 2024, and projects 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion dollars by Election Day. Ten wallets control 17 percent of congressional volume on Polymarket and the top 1 percent account for 70 percent.

Betting on 2026 congressional races exceeded 220 million dollars through September 30, according to Athlitical, citing an Anti-Corruption Data Collective analysis of 21,811 midterm markets. That is more than double the 92.4 million dollars wagered in all of 2024.

The analysis projects that wagering will reach 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion dollars by Election Day. That forecast points to substantial further growth, but remains a projection rather than a measure of money already traded.

Trading concentration complicates the picture

According to Athlitical, ten wallets account for 17 percent of congressional trading volume on Polymarket. The top 1 percent account for 70 percent, putting a large share of activity within a small portion of the market.

Those figures distinguish growing wagering volume from broad participation. More money changing hands does not, by itself, establish that prices reflect a wider range of independent views.

The concentration data also concern trading volume, not proof that particular traders have distorted prices. The supplied summary does not establish how much these wallets influenced any individual market’s implied probability.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume and breadth are different signals. The increase over 2024 shows greater wagering activity, while Polymarket’s concentration figures raise a separate question about how broadly that activity is distributed.
  • Aggregate totals have limits. The analysis covers 21,811 midterm markets, but the supplied summary does not show how trading is spread across individual contracts.
  • Concentration warrants careful interpretation. A small group’s large share of volume is relevant to assessing market signals, but does not alone demonstrate manipulation or inaccurate forecasts.
  • The Election Day estimate remains prospective. The projected 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion dollars should be distinguished from the more than 220 million dollars recorded through September 30.
PolymarketElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Athlitical
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