Ebola pandemic in 2026 priced at 2.5% on Polymarket, up 0.1 points, on $789K traded
PredictionBubbles' climate board lists the Ebola pandemic contract among its most-traded climate markets, in a climate/science category distinct from the lead. It has…
A Polymarket contract on an Ebola pandemic in 2026 was priced at 2.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, with $789K traded, in the supplied snapshot published Oct 24, 2026 · 9:24 PM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appears among the most-traded markets on its climate board. Its placement reflects the site’s climate/science categorization, rather than a classification of Ebola as a climate outcome.
Reading the board
PredictionBubbles says its climate page tracks 23 open markets, comprising 2 from Kalshi and 21 from Polymarket. The site refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.
The board distinguishes trading activity from price movement. Its volume ranking measures total traded volume, while its movement ranking uses absolute probability changes over the preceding 24 hours. The Ebola contract’s $789K in trading and 0.1-point increase therefore describe different aspects of market activity.
Context and limits
According to PredictionBubbles, the board’s most-traded contract at its last refresh was “Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?” on Polymarket, with $18.7M traded. The Ebola contract’s inclusion among active markets does not make it the board’s volume leader.
The supplied material does not include the Ebola contract’s detailed wording, settlement criteria or price history. PredictionBubbles describes itself as an information service displaying venue prices, not an operator that accepts wagers, holds funds or offers accounts.
What it means for prediction markets
- The signal remains a low market-implied probability: the reported 2.5% price rose only 0.1 percentage points. It is a trading price, not an independently established public-health probability.
- Volume and repricing are separate signals: $789K measures cumulative trading activity, not the magnitude of the latest change in expectations.
- Settlement details remain essential: the provided material does not establish what would qualify as an Ebola pandemic under this contract.
- Timing matters: the 15-minute refresh schedule means the displayed snapshot can differ from subsequent venue prices.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/climate/
Date & time:
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