Wisconsin wins priced at 57.0% on Kalshi, up 14 points, on $1.2M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Wisconsin win contract among its largest upward moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead. It has zero hits in…
Wisconsin’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at 57.0%, up 14 probability points, with $1.2M traded in the supplied Oct 24, 2026 · 10:09 PM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the largest upward moves on its movers board, within the sports category.
The figures indicate a substantial repricing, but the supplied material does not identify Wisconsin’s opponent, the competition or the contract’s settlement terms. It also provides no explanation for the move.
How the board measures movement
According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings compare market-implied probabilities over 24 hours using prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The board updates every 15 minutes; the supplied source records a venue-data refresh at 25 Oct 2026, 01:47 UTC.
The board ranks 1,959 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures to keep rapid settlement-related swings from dominating the results. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify.
Volume provides context, not rank
PredictionBubbles orders markets by the size of their probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage gains. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the ranking. Wisconsin’s 14-point rise should therefore not be read as a 14% relative increase.
The supplied headline reports $1.2M traded, but the accompanying source excerpt does not show Wisconsin’s individual market card or establish the period covered by that figure. Without contract-specific news or liquidity details, the available material supports a report of changed pricing—not a conclusion about what caused it.
What it means for prediction markets
- Price and outcome are distinct: The 57.0% figure reflects market pricing, not confirmation that Wisconsin will win.
- The ranking measures movement: Wisconsin’s upward shift places it among notable repricings; volume does not determine its position.
- Key context remains unavailable: The event, settlement terms and catalyst are not identified, limiting interpretation of the move.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027 priced at 1.4% on Polymarket, on $833K traded
- Vanderbilt wins priced at 4.0% on Kalshi, down 17 points, on $1.3M traded
- Texas wins priced at 89.0% on Kalshi, up 30 points, on $4.1M traded
- Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement priced at 83.7% on Polymarket, up 4.0 points, on $161K traded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 priced at 82.5% on Polymarket, up 8.0 points, on $6.0M traded
- Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? — Claude priced at 49.7% on Kalshi, down 0.2 points, on $3.1M traded