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Trump Nobel contract shows divergent pricing across two prediction exchanges

PicksByOdds' same-question, two-exchanges board, read this run, lists the Trump Nobel pair among its verified cross-exchange gaps at Kalshi 3c against Polymarket 7c, a…

Donald Trump's 2027 Nobel Peace Prize contract was priced at 3c on Kalshi and 7c on Polymarket, according to PicksByOdds’ comparison board.

Same question, different prices

The snapshot, published Nov 6, 2026 · 11:54 AM ET, placed the contract among the board’s verified price gaps between exchanges. PicksByOdds groups the pair as contracts asking the same question.

The reported spread was 4.4 points. The displayed prices of 3c and 7c are less precise than that spread figure; the supplied material does not include more granular prices to reconcile them.

Polymarket therefore showed the higher price for the Trump Nobel outcome in this snapshot. The available summary does not provide trading volume, available quantities or contract settlement terms, limiting what can be concluded about the gap beyond the quoted comparison.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Exchange choice affects the observed signal: The same-question pair showed different prices, so neither quote alone captures pricing across both venues.
  • Precision matters: The reported 4.4-point spread should be distinguished from the displayed 3c and 7c prices.
  • A quoted gap is not an execution guarantee: Without available quantities and settlement details, the snapshot does not establish whether traders could capture the reported difference.
PredictionMarketsKalshiPolymarketNobelPrizeInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com/markets
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Kalshi”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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