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Democratic sweep odds diverge as Election Day trading tops $158 million

Cointime reports Polymarket prices a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 78 percent on more than 58 million dollars traded, while Kalshi prices the same outcome at 74 percent on more than 100 million dollars traded. The four-point gap is one of the widest venue splits on a headline Election Day contract.

According to Cointime, prediction markets show different prices for a Democratic sweep of both chambers: 78 percent on Polymarket and 74 percent on Kalshi.

The figures, published Nov 3, 2026, at 11:30 AM ET, put the same outcome four percentage points apart across the two venues.

Higher pricing, lower trading volume

Polymarket’s contract has drawn more than $58 million in trading, according to Cointime. Kalshi’s has attracted more than $100 million, placing the combined total above $158 million.

The venue with the larger reported trading volume therefore assigns the lower price to a Democratic sweep. Both markets nevertheless price that outcome above 50 percent.

A notable Election Day discrepancy

Cointime describes the four-point difference as one of the widest gaps between venues for a headline Election Day contract.

The supplied summary provides no explanation for the divergence or details on how the gap has changed over time. It establishes a pricing difference at the reported snapshot, rather than a trend toward convergence or further separation.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Venue choice affects the reported odds: A Democratic sweep is priced at 78 percent on Polymarket versus 74 percent on Kalshi.
  • Volume does not eliminate disagreement: The four-point spread persists in the reported figures despite more than $158 million in combined trading.
  • The snapshot has limits: Without contract terms or a price history, the figures alone do not establish why the markets differ.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Cointime
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