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Democratic congressional sweep odds rise above early September levels

TradingView, carrying Seeking Alpha, reported on Sunday morning that Kalshi's balance-of-power market put the chance of Democrats winning both the House and Senate at about 70 percent, up from below 50 percent in early September, with Polymarket at 72 percent. A Republican sweep was priced at 6.7 percent on Kalshi and 5 percent on Polymarket.

Democrats were favored to win both the House and Senate in prediction-market pricing on Sunday morning, according to TradingView, carrying Seeking Alpha. Kalshi put that outcome at about 70 percent, while Polymarket priced it at 72 percent.

Democratic sweep pricing climbs

Kalshi’s balance-of-power market had placed the probability of a Democratic sweep below 50 percent in early September. The Sunday morning reading therefore marked an increase of more than 20 percentage points.

The report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 9:30 AM ET. Polymarket’s 72 percent reading was slightly higher than Kalshi’s estimate, with both platforms favoring Democratic control of both chambers.

Republican sweep remains a low-probability outcome

A Republican sweep was priced at 6.7 percent on Kalshi and 5 percent on Polymarket, according to the same report. Both markets thus showed a substantial gap between the probabilities assigned to the two parties winning both chambers.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The shift is clearest on Kalshi: Democratic sweep pricing rose from below 50 percent in early September to about 70 percent on Sunday morning.
  • The platforms broadly agree: Polymarket assigned a slightly higher probability to a Democratic sweep and a slightly lower probability to a Republican sweep than Kalshi.
  • These are probability snapshots: The reported prices favor a Democratic sweep but do not establish the election outcome.
KalshiPolymarketSenateCongressInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    TradingViewtradingview.com
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    https://www.tradingview.com
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