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December Fed hike odds trail futures across two prediction venues

PredictionMarketPicks reports its December 2026 FOMC tracker, updated at 3:00 a.m. EST on November 4, prices a 25 basis point hike at 76.5 percent on Kalshi and 75.5 percent on Polymarket, against 78.9 percent implied by fed funds futures. A hold is priced near 24 percent on both prediction venues.

A 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting is priced at 76.5 percent on Kalshi and 75.5 percent on Polymarket, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Both readings sit below the 78.9 percent probability implied by fed funds futures.

Comparing the December pricing

The figures come from PredictionMarketPicks’ December 2026 FOMC tracker, updated at 3:00 a.m. EST on November 4. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 4:15 AM ET.

The largest difference is 3.4 percentage points, between Polymarket and futures. Kalshi’s hike probability is 2.4 percentage points below the futures reading, while the two prediction venues are separated by 1 percentage point.

A hold is priced near 24 percent on both prediction venues, according to PredictionMarketPicks. The snapshot therefore shows a hike as the more heavily priced outcome on each platform, despite their modest difference in hike probabilities.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Direction aligns: Kalshi, Polymarket and fed funds futures all put the probability of a 25 basis point December hike above 75 percent.
  • Pricing differs: Polymarket has the lowest hike probability in the snapshot and the widest gap against futures, at 3.4 percentage points.
  • Timing matters: These readings reflect the tracker’s November 4 update, not a subsequent market move or the eventual FOMC decision.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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