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Fed markets favor December increase followed by January pause

Both Kalshi and Polymarket price a 25 basis point increase as the favorite for the December 2026 Fed decision at 71 cents. The same comparison prices no change as the favorite for the January 2027 decision at 73 cents on both venues.

Kalshi and Polymarket both favor a 25 basis point increase for the December 2026 Fed decision, according to WIN DAILY. The outcome is priced at 71 cents on each venue.

The comparison, published Nov 1, 2026 at 11:15 AM ET, shows matching prices across the two platforms for the favored December outcome.

January pricing points to no change

For the January 2027 Fed decision, no change is the favorite, according to WIN DAILY. Both Kalshi and Polymarket price that outcome at 73 cents.

The two snapshots favor an increase in December followed by an unchanged decision in January. They describe pricing for separate decisions, however, rather than a quoted price for that combined sequence.

What it means for prediction markets

  • December agreement: Both venues price a 25 basis point increase at 71 cents, with no difference between the reported prices.
  • January agreement: No change leads at 73 cents on both platforms.
  • Snapshot limits: The supplied comparison does not include other outcome prices or earlier observations, so it does not establish how expectations have shifted.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    WIN DAILYwindailysports.com
    Publisher
    https://windailysports.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to WIN DAILY”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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