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Iran regime market draws $29.6 million as implied odds edge lower

PredictionBubbles lists the market among the biggest open politics markets by total volume, with the price easing 0.1 points in the last 24 hours.

A Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling before 2027 was priced at 2.8 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. The update was published Nov 7, 2026, at 4:30 PM ET.

High volume, low implied probability

The contract had recorded 29.6 million dollars in trading volume. PredictionBubbles placed it among the biggest open politics markets measured by total volume.

Its price had declined 0.1 points over the preceding 24 hours. That left the market assigning a low implied probability to the outcome despite its substantial cumulative trading activity.

The supplied summary does not explain the price movement or provide the contract’s resolution criteria. Those limits matter when interpreting what traders are pricing under the description of the Iranian regime falling before 2027.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Price and volume tell different stories: The 2.8 percent price reflects the market’s implied probability, while 29.6 million dollars measures total trading activity—not support for the outcome.
  • The latest move was modest: A 0.1-point decline over 24 hours indicates a slight downward repricing, not evidence of a broader trend.
  • Resolution details remain important: The summary does not specify what conditions would qualify as the Iranian regime falling before 2027.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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