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December Fed hike odds retreat as unchanged rate outcome gains ground

The Kalshi contract on a 25 basis point Fed hike at the December 2026 meeting fell 13 points to 68 percent, with 890,000 dollars traded. The companion contract on no change rose 12 points to 31 percent on 1.0 million dollars of volume.

The Kalshi contract for a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase at the December 2026 meeting fell 13 points to 68 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.

The companion contract for no change rose 12 points to 31 percent. The figures were reported on Nov 5, 2026, at 3:15 PM ET.

A narrower gap between outcomes

The 25 basis point hike contract recorded 890,000 dollars traded, while volume on the no-change contract reached 1.0 million dollars, according to PredictionBubbles.

A 25 basis point increase remained the higher-priced outcome despite its decline. The opposing moves narrowed the gap between the two contracts, with the no-change contract drawing more trading volume.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A hike still leads: The 68 percent reading remained above the 31 percent price for no change, even after the 13-point decline.
  • Volume favored no change: Its 1.0 million dollars in volume exceeded the hike contract’s 890,000 dollars, though volume alone does not establish why prices moved.
  • The catalyst is unspecified: The supplied reporting identifies the price and volume changes but provides no explanation for the repricing.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
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    https://predictionbubbles.com
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