Fed rate contract sinks to 2 cents on thin trading
PicksByOdds ranks the contract as the biggest mover over its 169-day archive, down 71.0 percentage points to 2 cents. Only 5,602 dollars has traded on it, so the record move rests on thin volume.
A contract tied to whether the Fed funds upper bound will exceed 4.50 percent after the April 28, 2027 meeting has fallen 71.0 percentage points to 2 cents, according to PicksByOdds.
Record move, limited volume
PicksByOdds ranks the decline as the largest move in its 169-day archive. Its update was published Nov 5, 2026, at 8:15 AM ET.
Only $5,602 has traded on the contract. That leaves the archive-leading price change supported by thin volume, an important distinction between the size of the move and the amount of trading behind it.
A specific rate threshold
The contract concerns the Fed funds upper bound after the April 28, 2027 meeting—not simply whether the Fed changes rates at that meeting. Its condition requires the upper bound to be above 4.50 percent.
The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the decline or describe how trading was distributed. It therefore supports a record-move comparison within PicksByOdds’ archive, but not an explanation for the repricing.
What it means for prediction markets
- Price versus participation: The fall to 2 cents is substantial, but total trading of $5,602 limits how confidently it can be read as a broad market judgment.
- Record scope: The largest-move ranking applies to PicksByOdds’ 169-day archive, not necessarily to a longer period or other markets.
- Threshold matters: An upper bound of exactly 4.50 percent would not exceed the contract’s stated threshold.
Sources & attribution
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