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Polymarket traders heavily favor no Satoshi Bitcoin movement in 2026

The market asks whether Satoshi moves any Bitcoin during 2026. Alpha Finance lists the Yes side at 2 percent and the No side at 98 percent in its prediction market screener.

A Polymarket contract asking whether Satoshi moves any Bitcoin during 2026 has its Yes side priced at 2 percent, according to Alpha Finance.

The outlet’s prediction market screener lists No at 98 percent. Those prices place the market overwhelmingly on the side of no movement during the year.

A calendar-year question

The report, published Nov 5, 2026 · 5:15 AM ET, describes a question covering any Bitcoin movement by Satoshi during 2026, rather than a specified transaction size.

The supplied summary does not include the contract’s detailed resolution rules or identify which evidence would establish qualifying movement. It also provides no trading-volume or liquidity figures with which to assess the depth behind the quoted prices.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 2 percent Yes and 98 percent No prices show a strongly one-sided market assessment, not a settled outcome.
  • The stated event window is 2026; the quoted prices are those listed in Alpha Finance’s screener.
  • Without resolution criteria or liquidity data, the summary alone cannot establish how disputed evidence would be handled or how robust the pricing is.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Alpha Finance
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
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