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Stepnohirsk capture contract draws $2.3 million as odds sit at 10.5%

World Monitor lists the Stepnohirsk market among its most traded geopolitics markets in its November 5 snapshot. The contract has traded 2.3 million dollars on Polymarket and closes around January 1, 2027.

Pricing and trading activity

A Polymarket contract on whether Russia will capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026 is priced at 10.5 percent, according to World Monitor. The contract has recorded 2.3 million dollars in trading volume.

World Monitor included the contract among its most traded geopolitics markets in its November 5 snapshot. The supplied report was published on Nov 5, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET.

Deadline and closing date

The contract’s stated event deadline is December 31, 2026, while World Monitor lists its closing date as around January 1, 2027. Those dates distinguish the deadline for the territorial outcome from the market’s approximate close.

The available summary provides a price and cumulative trading volume, but no earlier observations for comparison. It therefore does not establish whether the 10.5 percent price reflects a recent shift in expectations.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 10.5 percent price indicates that the market assigns a low probability to Russia capturing all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026; it is not confirmation of any battlefield outcome.
  • The 2.3 million dollars traded and inclusion in World Monitor’s most traded geopolitics list show trading activity, but do not establish current liquidity.
  • The supplied material does not include detailed resolution rules or a source link, limiting assessment of how full capture would be verified.
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Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
    Publisher
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