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Israel strike contract draws $7.8 million as 2026 deadline approaches

World Monitor ranked the contract among the most traded geopolitics markets it tracks across Polymarket and Kalshi. The market resolves on January 1, 2027.

A Polymarket contract on Israel striking 4 countries in 2026 was priced at 78.6 percent, with $7.8 million traded, according to World Monitor.

The figures appeared in an update published on Nov 6, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. They describe the contract’s market pricing and trading activity, rather than confirmation that the underlying outcome has occurred.

Trading activity and resolution

World Monitor placed the contract among the most traded geopolitics markets it monitors across Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied summary does not specify its exact rank or provide figures for other contracts.

The market resolves on January 1, 2027. The summary does not include the full resolution criteria or identify which countries or actions would qualify.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 78.6 percent price captures the market’s assessment at the reported time; it is not a verified forecast or a confirmed outcome.
  • The $7.8 million traded establishes substantial activity in this contract, but the summary provides no price history or liquidity data.
  • The January 1, 2027 resolution date is a key reference point. Without the contract’s detailed rules, the supplied material cannot establish precisely what evidence would determine settlement.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    World Monitor
    Publisher
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    Source URL
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