Bitcoin November target loses ground as Polymarket odds drop sharply

The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin reaching 82,500 dollars in November fell 33 percentage points to 41.5 percent over the last 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update, published Nov 6, 2026 at 6:30 AM ET, puts the implied probability of reaching that target below half.

A sharp repricing on the crypto board

The decline ranked among the largest moves on the crypto board over that period, according to PredictionBubbles. The contract had 90,000 dollars traded.

The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the move or provide Bitcoin’s current price. It therefore does not establish whether the repricing followed a change in the underlying asset or other developments.

November target, December resolution

The contract concerns Bitcoin reaching 82,500 dollars in November, but its resolution date is December 1, 2026. That separates the target month from the date when the market is scheduled to resolve.

What it means for prediction markets

• The 33-percentage-point decline marks a substantial shift in the contract’s pricing, leaving its implied probability at 41.5 percent.
• The reported 90,000 dollars traded provides activity context, but the summary offers no order-book or liquidity detail.
• The December 1, 2026 resolution date is specified; the supplied material does not include the full settlement criteria.