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Kalshi Bitcoin odds jump as nearby price thresholds diverge

PredictMarketCap lists the 75,500 dollars or above intraday Bitcoin line among its trending markets today. The 76,000 dollars or above line on the same market is priced at 11 percent, with 283,300 dollars traded.

A Kalshi contract on Bitcoin reaching $75,500 or above on November 6 rose 31 percentage points to 92%, according to PredictMarketCap. Trading volume on that contract stood at $232,700.

Nearby thresholds show sharply different odds

PredictMarketCap listed the $75,500-or-above intraday Bitcoin line among its trending markets today. The update was published on Nov 6, 2026, at 4:45 PM ET.

The $76,000-or-above line in the same market was priced at 11%, with $283,300 traded, according to PredictMarketCap. That placed its quoted probability well below the lower threshold’s, despite greater trading volume.

The two Bitcoin thresholds are $500 apart, while their quoted probabilities differ by 81 percentage points. The supplied summary does not explain the gap or provide the contracts’ precise observation times and settlement terms.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 31-percentage-point rise marks a substantial repricing of the $75,500 line, but the summary does not identify its cause.
  • The higher threshold attracted more trading volume while carrying a much lower quoted probability; volume alone does not indicate a stronger expectation of settlement in favor.
  • The missing observation and settlement details limit what readers can infer from the difference between the two prices.
KalshiBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictMarketCap
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