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US-Iran nuclear agreement contract draws $21.3 million at 10 percent

The nuclear deal market is the second most traded contract on the World Monitor board of 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets. It closes on January 1, 2027.

A Polymarket contract on a final US-Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2026 is priced at 10 percent, according to World Monitor. Trading volume stands at $21.3 million.

Position on the market board

The nuclear agreement contract ranks second by trading volume on World Monitor’s board of 50 markets from Polymarket and Kalshi. That ranking places it near the top of the tracked group, despite its low price for an agreement by the deadline.

The figures were reported on Nov 6, 2026 at 6:30 AM ET. They represent a market snapshot, rather than a confirmed outcome for the negotiations.

Deadline and closing date

The contract concerns a final agreement by December 31, 2026, while its closing date is January 1, 2027. The supplied summary does not include the detailed criteria for determining whether an agreement qualifies.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 10 percent price reflects a low market-implied likelihood of a final US-Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2026, not certainty that no deal will occur.
  • The $21.3 million traded and second-place volume ranking show substantial trading activity within World Monitor’s tracked board; volume alone does not establish forecast accuracy.
  • The agreement deadline and contract closing date are distinct. Without the full resolution rules, the supplied information does not establish precisely what would count as a final deal.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
    Publisher
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