Commodities & crypto stats
Overnight tape: the maximum WTI front-month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026 at 31.9% on Kalshi, up 7.6 points, on $994K traded. Spot tape: Bitcoin at…
Oil contract reprices higher
A Kalshi contract on whether the maximum WTI front-month settlement price would reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026 stood at 31.9%, up 7.6 probability points, with $994K traded, according to the supplied overnight summary.
The move reflects a higher market-implied probability for that specific settlement-price threshold. The material provided does not identify a catalyst for the repricing or supply a current WTI price.
Reading the snapshot
According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers tracker compares probabilities over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, with updates every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data reading of 17 Oct 2026, 09:37 UTC; the accompanying summary was published Oct 17, 2026 · 5:54 AM ET.
The tracker ranks absolute probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes, and treats a shift of at least one point as a moving market. Its stated universe comprises 2,015 markets that run longer than 14 days, with the displayed table covering the top 150 of 406 movers. Volume provides context but does not determine the movement ranking.
The page also identifies an October WTI contract concerning a $95 low and a question about whether Variational will launch a token by December 31, 2026 among its highlighted movers, without supplying their probabilities or trading volumes in the provided extract. The summary’s Bitcoin spot-price entry is incomplete, leaving no Bitcoin quotation available to report.
What it means for prediction markets
- The contract definition matters: The 31.9% reading concerns a maximum WTI front-month settlement price reaching $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026—not a supplied spot-price quote.
- Separate the move from the activity: The 7.6-point increase measures repricing; the $994K traded is a separate measure and does not establish order-book depth.
- Keep the evidence bounded: The snapshot shows a change in market pricing, but the supplied material does not explain its cause or support a broader conclusion about Bitcoin.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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