Iranian regime fall before 2027 priced at 5.5% on Polymarket, on $27.3M traded

Polymarket traders priced the fall of the Iranian regime before 2027 at 5.5%, with $27.3M traded, in the supplied market snapshot published Oct 17, 2026 · 6:09 AM ET. The price places that outcome at a low market-implied probability, rather than ruling it out.

The accompanying news summary reported no significant new platform headline during the preceding 15 minutes. It supplied no fresh development explaining the Iran contract’s price and no earlier probability against which to measure a change.

Iran markets in context

A separate Iran-related contract led the politics rankings by trading volume, according to predictionbubbles.net: whether the U.S. would invade Iran before 2027 had $74.4M traded on Polymarket at the latest refresh. That question concerns a different event; its volume does not establish the likelihood of regime collapse.

PredictionBubbles says its politics coverage includes 946 markets, comprising 215 from Kalshi and 731 from Polymarket. Its embedded board displays the 300 largest markets by volume, while the full board covers all 946.

Reading the snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, the underlying venues trade continuously, while its data updates every 15 minutes. The site distinguishes total trading volume from probability movement: a heavily traded contract is not necessarily one whose odds have recently shifted.

The supplied material does not include the Iran regime contract’s resolution criteria or its 24-hour price change. Those omissions limit conclusions about both what would qualify as a regime fall and whether the 5.5% reading represents a repricing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Low odds are not certainty: The 5.5% reading reflects market pricing for the specified outcome before 2027, not a definitive forecast.
• Volume and movement are different signals: The $27.3M traded establishes reported activity, but does not show whether sentiment changed in the latest quarter-hour.
• Related contracts require separate analysis: U.S. invasion and Iranian regime fall are distinct outcomes. PredictionBubbles also cautions that related contracts across venues can differ in wording, settlement rules and deadlines.