CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026 priced at 3.1% on Polymarket, on $289K traded

A low probability ahead of the deadline

Polymarket priced the prospect of CMI declaring a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026 at 3.1%, with $289K traded, in the supplied market snapshot published Oct 17, 2026 · 3:09 PM ET.

The price puts the specified declaration firmly in low-probability territory. It reflects traders’ assessment of an outcome by the stated deadline, rather than establishing whether a problem has been solved.

What the available data shows

According to predictionbubbles.net, its culture-market tracker republishes prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes. Trading on the underlying venues is continuous, so the displayed figures need not capture subsequent transactions.

The supplied predictionbubbles.net page describes 47 open culture markets: 11 from Kalshi and 36 from Polymarket. It distinguishes rankings based on traded volume from those based on absolute probability changes over the last 24 hours. The $289K figure in the supplied headline is therefore a turnover measure, not evidence of a recent price shift.

The accompanying summary reports no significant new platform headline in the preceding 15 minutes. However, the provided material contains neither a market-specific news catalyst nor a 24-hour price change for the CMI question. It also does not include the contract’s full resolution rules, limiting what can be concluded beyond the quoted price, volume and deadline.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline defines the forecast: The 3.1% price concerns a CMI declaration by December 31, 2026, not an unrestricted prediction about a future solution.
• Volume is not momentum: $289K traded does not establish whether the probability has recently risen or fallen.
• Resolution details remain important: Without the full contract rules, the supplied material does not establish precisely what evidence would qualify the market for settlement.
• The price is a snapshot: PredictionBubbles’ 15-minute refresh schedule can leave its displayed data behind continuously trading venues.