The Odyssey to win Best Picture priced at 48.5% on Polymarket

The Odyssey was priced at a 48.5% chance of winning Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards on Polymarket, down 4 probability points over 24 hours, with $165K traded. The figures accompanied the Oct 17, 2026 · 4:09 PM ET update.

A lower price, without an identified catalyst

According to predictionbubbles.net, the film’s Best Picture contract appeared among the markets highlighted for falling probabilities. The supplied material does not identify an awards development or other event behind the decline.

The 4-point drop measures a change in implied probability, not a 4% relative decline. The latest price puts the contract below 50%, but the material provides no prices for competing films or basis for assessing The Odyssey’s position in the wider Best Picture field.

How the move is measured

According to predictionbubbles.net, its tracker compares venue prices over 24 hours and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 17 Oct 2026, 19:41 UTC, and covered 1,982 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days across Polymarket and Kalshi.

The tracker orders markets by the size of their probability-point changes, regardless of direction; trading volume does not affect that ranking. The $165K traded adds activity context, but the supplied material gives no order-book depth for this contract, limiting conclusions about how readily trades could move its price.

What it means for prediction markets

• The signal is a downward repricing: 48.5% reflects the contract’s market-implied probability, not a confirmed assessment of the eventual award result.
• The cause remains unclear: The supplied reporting offers no catalyst that would explain the 4-point decline.
• Volume is not liquidity: The $165K traded does not, by itself, establish market depth or show whether the lower price will persist.