Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC Championship priced at 2.0% on Kalshi, down 3.0 points, on $1.3M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, fresh on its Oct. 26, 23:07 UTC snapshot, lists the Cleveland AFC Championship contract among its downward sports moves, in a sports…
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Cleveland’s contract to win the Pro Football AFC Championship on Kalshi was priced at 2.0%, down 3.0 probability points, with $1.3M traded, according to the supplied market update published Oct 26, 2026, at 7:39 PM ET.
PredictionBubbles’ movers board placed the contract among declining sports markets in its Oct. 26, 23:07 UTC snapshot. The supplied material does not identify a team development or other specific catalyst for the repricing.
How the move is measured
According to PredictionBubbles, its board compares market-implied probabilities over 24 hours and orders contracts by the size of their probability-point changes, regardless of direction. Cleveland’s 3.0-point decline is therefore a change in the market’s implied likelihood, not a 3.0% relative decrease.
The service draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and refreshes every 15 minutes. The supplied source page records a later venue-data refresh of 26 Oct 2026, 23:38 UTC; that timestamp is distinct from the snapshot cited for Cleveland.
Trading context and limits
PredictionBubbles says the board covers 1,992 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, and a change of at least one probability point meets its definition of a moving market.
The $1.3M traded figure provides activity context, but the supplied Cleveland update does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. PredictionBubbles treats trading volume and liquidity as context rather than inputs to its movement ranking.
What it means for prediction markets
The signal is a lower market price: Cleveland’s 2.0% implied probability reflects repricing, not an independently established probability of the eventual result.
Activity is not liquidity: The $1.3M traded figure alone cannot establish how much trading would be needed to move the contract’s price.
Timing matters: The Cleveland snapshot and the later source-page refresh should not be treated as interchangeable observations.
The catalyst remains unspecified: The supplied material supports reporting the decline, but not attributing it to a particular game, announcement or trading event.