Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31 priced at 11.5% on Polymarket, down 3.0 points, on $775K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in public by December 31 was priced at 11.5%, down 3.0 probability points, with $775K traded, according to the supplied market snapshot published Oct 26, 2026, at 8:09 PM ET.

PredictionBubbles lists the contract among declining political markets. The move reflects a lower market-implied likelihood of a public appearance before the deadline, but the supplied material does not identify a news event behind the decline.

How the move is measured

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board compares prices over 24 hours and updates every 15 minutes using data from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied board recorded its venue-data refresh at 26 Oct 2026, 23:38 UTC.

The board ranks changes by their magnitude in probability points, rather than relative percentages. Its coverage spans 1,992 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding short-lived fixtures that can dominate rankings as settlement approaches. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify.

Limits of the snapshot

The $775K traded figure provides activity context, but the supplied Khamenei snapshot does not specify its measurement period or show order-book depth. PredictionBubbles treats trading activity separately from price movement and does not use volume or liquidity to determine the movers ranking.

The supplied source excerpt explains the board’s methodology rather than providing detailed reporting on Khamenei. It offers neither the contract’s full resolution criteria nor evidence establishing why traders marked down the probability.

What it means for prediction markets

• The signal is a repricing: The 3.0-point decline leaves the contract at 11.5%; it is not independent evidence about whether a public appearance will occur.
• Volume does not establish liquidity: The reported $775K traded cannot, on its own, show how readily orders could be executed near the displayed price.
• Resolution details remain important: Without the full rules, the supplied material does not establish what evidence would qualify as being seen in public by December 31.