ChatGPT Outage by...? prices Oct. 31 at 74% and Oct. 15 at 71% on Polymarket

Two deadlines, closely spaced prices

Polymarket’s “ChatGPT Outage by...?” contract priced the Oct. 31 deadline at 74% and the Oct. 15 deadline at 71% as of Oct 15, 2026, at 6:24 PM ET. The two readings put the later deadline just 3 percentage points above the nearer one.

Created Oct. 12, the market is an early tech contract appearing for the first time in today’s editions. It sits in a different tech category from the lead story.

Recent disruptions provide context

According to Polymarket’s account, OpenAI recorded several brief periods of degraded performance during October 2026, with spikes on October 15, 10, 6, and 5. The affected services included Codex, ChatGPT Work, image-generation models including gpt-image-2.5 variants, and the Compliance API.

Polymarket links those incidents to wider user reports of streaming errors, failures to load conversations, and higher error rates during heavy use of large language models. Its account describes recurring small disruptions as evidence of the operational demands of expanding conversational AI, coding assistants, and enterprise features, including plugins and desktop clients.

For traders following the contract, Polymarket identifies OpenAI’s status page as a source to monitor for additional incidents. It also points to upcoming model releases and infrastructure updates as potential sources of further instability, without identifying a specific forthcoming release or update.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline gap is narrow: The Oct. 31 price of 74% exceeds the Oct. 15 price of 71% by 3 percentage points.
• Incident classification matters: The supplied material describes degraded performance but does not provide the contract’s resolution rules. It therefore does not establish whether any listed incident qualifies as an outage for settlement.
• Operational reports are the next evidence to watch: New status-page entries could inform expectations, but their relevance to resolution depends on the contract’s criteria.