Carson Benge win NL ROTY priced at 17% on Kalshi, down 6 points, on $792K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Benge rookie-of-the-year contract among the day's downward moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead — a…
Carson Benge’s contract to win NL ROTY on Kalshi was priced at 17%, down 6 probability points over 24 hours, with $792K traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the rookie-of-the-year contract was among the day’s declining sports markets.
A lower price, without an identified catalyst
The figures accompanied an update published Oct 18, 2026, at 5:09 AM ET. PredictionBubbles said its underlying venue-price snapshot was taken on 18 Oct 2026 at 09:05 UTC, with the board refreshed every 15 minutes.
The supplied material does not identify a Benge-specific development behind the decline. The move therefore establishes a change in market pricing, but does not explain whether traders were responding to new information, order flow or a reassessment of existing information.
How the board measures movement
According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings compare absolute probability-point changes over 24 hours across Polymarket and Kalshi. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect a contract’s position in the movement rankings.
The board covered 2,053 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excluded same-week fixtures. Its broader table displayed the top 150 of 423 markets that had moved at least one probability point. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualified, making this a filtered view of repricing rather than a complete inventory of market activity.
What it means for prediction markets
- The decline is 6 probability points, not 6%. The 17% price is the market-implied probability at the reported snapshot, not a confirmed assessment of the award outcome.
- Volume and movement answer different questions. The reported $792K traded adds activity context, but does not by itself establish order-book depth or explain the price change.
- The catalyst remains unspecified. Nothing in the supplied reporting ties Benge’s decline to a particular sporting development.
- The timestamp matters. These figures describe one snapshot of a board that refreshes every 15 minutes.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- A crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027 priced at 5% on Kalshi, down 2.4 points, on $2.4M traded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 priced at 44.5% on Polymarket, up 7 points, on $645K traded
- Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026 priced at 39.5% on Polymarket, down 5.5 points, on $722K traded
- Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel priced at 53% on Polymarket, up 3.2 points, on $3.2M traded
- Georgia win the College Football Playoff National Championship priced at 15% on Kalshi, down 4 points, on $3.5M traded
- United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029 priced at 23% on Kalshi, up 5 points, on $2.9M traded