US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 priced at 44.5% on Polymarket, up 7 points, on $645K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether the US–Iran ceasefire will continue through November 30 was priced at 44.5%, up 7 probability points over 24 hours, with $645K traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the contract was among the day’s upward moves in its political/geopolitical category.

The higher price still leaves the market-implied probability below 50%. The supplied material identifies no diplomatic announcement or other specific development behind the move, so the repricing cannot be attributed to a particular catalyst.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles says its board uses prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot records venue data read on 18 Oct 2026, 10:06 UTC.

The board ranks changes over 24 hours in probability points, rather than relative percentages. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the rankings. The ceasefire contract’s 7-point increase therefore measures the shift in its implied probability, not a 7% relative gain.

What the snapshot leaves open

According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covers 2,036 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify; the displayed table contains the top 150 of 425 markets moving at least one probability point.

The $645K traded figure adds context, but the supplied material does not specify its measurement period or provide the ceasefire contract’s order-book depth or settlement terms. Those omissions limit what can be concluded about the strength of the move and precisely how continuation through November 30 will be assessed.

What it means for prediction markets

• An upward revision, not a majority probability: At 44.5%, the contract remains below even odds despite its 7-point rise.
• Price movement is not confirmation: The snapshot shows traders assigning a higher probability to continuation, not evidence that the ceasefire will hold.
• Volume needs context: The reported $645K traded does not, by itself, establish current liquidity or explain the repricing.