Carson Benge win NL Rookie of the Year priced at 19% on Kalshi, up 3 points, on $790K traded
PredictionBubbles ranks the rookie award contract among the day's upward moves — a contract not featured in any earlier edition today, in a sports markets category…
Carson Benge’s Kalshi contract to win NL Rookie of the Year was priced at 19%, up 3 probability points, with $790K traded, in the update published Oct 16, 2026, at 9:54 PM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the rookie-award contract appeared among the day’s upward movers in sports markets. It had not appeared in an earlier edition that day, although that does not establish when the contract began trading.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window using probability points, rather than relative percentage gains. The 3-point increase therefore describes the shift in Benge’s market-implied probability, not a 3% relative increase.
The tracker draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and refreshes every 15 minutes. Its supplied snapshot records venue data read on 17 Oct 2026, at 01:46 UTC, across 2,005 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify for its movement rankings.
What the figures establish
According to PredictionBubbles, trading volume provides context but does not affect a contract’s position in the movement ranking. Benge’s $790K traded figure and 3-point gain therefore describe separate dimensions: trading activity and the change in price.
The supplied material does not identify a news event behind Benge’s increase or provide competing candidates’ prices. It also does not specify the measurement period for the contract’s $790K traded figure, limiting conclusions about how much activity accompanied the latest move.
What it means for prediction markets
- The price moved upward, but remains below 50%. The 19% reading shows a higher market-implied probability, not an expectation that Benge is more likely than not to win.
- Movement is not market leadership. Without other candidates’ prices, the update does not establish Benge’s standing within the award market.
- Volume is context, not proof of liquidity. The $790K figure alone does not establish order-book depth or explain the 3-point repricing.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
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