California Prop 40 wealth tax is a clear underdog: Yes at 30c on Polymarket, 26c on Kalshi

California’s proposed billionaire wealth tax faces unfavorable prediction-market pricing ahead of the Nov. 3 vote. Both Polymarket and Kalshi favor rejection of Prop 40, according to Action Network.

The measure would impose a one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires. The report, published Oct 14, 2026, at 2:54 AM ET, places passage firmly as the less likely outcome on both venues.

How the two markets compare

On Polymarket, Yes is priced at 30c and No at 71c. Kalshi assigns a lower price to passage, with Yes at 26c and No at 74c.

The venues therefore agree on the favored outcome, while Kalshi’s pricing is more negative toward the proposal. These figures describe the reported market snapshot, not a vote result.

What it means for prediction markets

• Rejection is favored on both exchanges: No prices of 71c on Polymarket and 74c on Kalshi show a consistent directional view.
• Passage remains a minority-priced outcome: Yes stands at 30c and 26c, respectively, rather than being priced out entirely.
• Nov. 3 is the key electoral date: The contracts concern whether California voters approve the proposed one-time 5% billionaire wealth tax.