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2028 party-winner price splits the venues: Democrats at 58.5c on Kalshi vs. 63.5c on Polymarket

DeFi Rate's current cross-venue board blends Democrats at 61% to win the presidency in 2028, with the 5-point venue gap the headline split on its disagreements panel — a…

Democrats’ prices to win the presidency in 2028 differ across Kalshi and Polymarket, with DeFi Rate’s cross-venue board showing a blended probability of 61%.

A 5-point venue split

At the Oct 14, 2026 · 3:39 AM ET snapshot, the Democratic party-winner contract stood at 58.5c on Kalshi and 63.5c on Polymarket, according to DeFi Rate.

That puts Polymarket 5 points above Kalshi. DeFi Rate identifies the difference as the headline split on its disagreements panel, making the venue comparison a distinct signal from the blended reading.

The supplied summary does not explain what is driving the gap or how the blended probability is calculated. It therefore supports a comparison of the displayed prices, but not a conclusion about why traders on the two venues are pricing the outcome differently.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Venue choice affects the reading: Both prices favor a Democratic win, but Polymarket’s displayed price is higher than Kalshi’s.
  • The blend masks disagreement: The 61% aggregate sits between 58.5c and 63.5c; it should not be mistaken for a price shared by both venues.
  • The snapshot has limits: The supplied material does not establish whether the gap is persistent or explain its cause.
PredictionMarketsKalshiPolymarketMidterms

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Defirate (defirate.com)https://defirate.com/?s

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