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Cagliari wins priced at 1.0% on Kalshi, down 9.0 points, on $1.2M traded

PredictionBubbles' sports board, unchanged on its Oct. 27, 22:12 UTC read, lists the Cagliari win contract among its markets ending soon, in a sports markets category…

Cagliari’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at a 1.0% market-implied probability, down 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $1.2M in total traded volume. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among sports markets approaching their resolution deadlines.

A low probability near resolution

The supplied summary describes the PredictionBubbles sports board as unchanged at its Oct. 27, 22:12 UTC reading. The story’s publication timestamp is Oct 27, 2026 · 6:24 PM ET. These figures represent a board snapshot, rather than a continuously updated exchange quote.

The material does not identify Cagliari’s opponent, the fixture, an exact resolution deadline or a reason for the price decline. The 1.0% reading reflects traders’ pricing of the win outcome; it does not establish that the contract has settled.

Volume and coverage

According to PredictionBubbles, its sports page tracks 531 open markets: 186 on Kalshi and 345 on Polymarket. Its embedded visualization displays the 300 largest by traded volume. The site refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.

PredictionBubbles distinguishes total traded volume from the size of a market’s probability move. Its highest-volume sports contract at the last refresh concerned whether Shakhtar Donetsk would win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship, with $36.4M traded on Polymarket. Cagliari’s $1.2M figure likewise measures total trading, not necessarily money exchanged during the 24-hour decline.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Price is not a result: Cagliari’s 1.0% probability indicates a low-priced win outcome, but the supplied material does not confirm settlement.
  • The move lacks a documented catalyst: The 9.0-percentage-point decline is reported without fixture details or supporting match news.
  • Timing matters: A 15-minute aggregation cycle can leave the displayed probability behind the exchange’s latest trades.
  • Cross-venue comparisons require care: PredictionBubbles notes that related Kalshi and Polymarket contracts can differ in wording and resolution rules.
PredictionMarketsKalshi

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/sports/

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