Bitcoin be above $200,000 by Jan 1, 2027 priced at 2.0% on Kalshi, up 1.0 points, on $13.7M traded
PredictionBubbles' crypto board, unchanged on its Oct. 27, 22:55 UTC read, lists the Bitcoin $200,000 year-end contract among its most-traded crypto markets, in a…
Kalshi’s contract on whether Bitcoin will be above $200,000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET was priced at a 2.0% implied probability, up 1.0 percentage point over 24 hours, in the Oct. 27 snapshot. Total traded volume stood at $13.7M.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract was the most-traded open crypto market on its board at the latest refresh. The supplied summary describes the board as unchanged at its Oct. 27, 22:55 UTC read; the story was published Oct 27, 2026 at 7:09 PM ET.
Heavy trading, low implied odds
The volume ranking and probability move measure different things. PredictionBubbles ranks its most-traded markets by total volume, while its movers list ranks absolute probability changes over the previous 24 hours. The $13.7M figure is therefore not a measure of trading during that 24-hour period.
Despite the 1.0-point increase, the 2.0% price still assigns a low implied probability to the specified Bitcoin outcome. It represents the market’s pricing of a yes-or-no event, not Bitcoin’s spot price.
A cross-venue snapshot
According to PredictionBubbles, its crypto board covers 282 open markets: 88 from Kalshi and 194 from Polymarket. The site refreshes its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.
PredictionBubbles displays venue-published prices rather than accepting wagers or holding funds. It also cautions that related contracts across Kalshi and Polymarket can have different wording and resolution rules, limiting direct comparisons.
What it means for prediction markets
- Activity does not imply confidence: The board’s leading contract by traded volume carried only a 2.0% implied probability.
- The move is in percentage points: The reported increase was 1.0 point over 24 hours, separate from the $13.7M total-volume figure.
- Timing and terms matter: The stated deadline is Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Comparisons with other Bitcoin contracts should account for their wording and resolution rules.
- The board is a snapshot: Its 15-minute refresh cycle means displayed probabilities may lag trading on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/crypto/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- At least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 priced at 19.5% on Polymarket, up 4.5 points, on $221K traded
- 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026 priced at 75.5% on Polymarket, up 3.0 points, on $206K traded
- U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027 priced at 4.8% on Kalshi, up 0.2 points, on $29.6M traded
- Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI before 2027 priced at 15.0% on Kalshi, down 3.0 points, on $1.3M traded
- Western Kentucky wins priced at 68.0% on Kalshi, up 17.0 points, on $741K traded
- Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026 priced at 13.5% on Polymarket, up 5.5 points, on $174K traded