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Best AI race is a two-way fight: Claude 43.2%, Gemini 41.3% on Kalshi

ChatGPT well back at 10.1% for best AI on Dec. 31.

Claude and Gemini lead the year-end market

Claude and Gemini are closely matched in Kalshi’s market on which AI will rank best on Dec. 31, 2026, with ChatGPT a distant third. The supplied Oct. 13, 2026, 9:09 PM ET snapshot puts Claude at 43.2%, Gemini at 41.3% and ChatGPT at 10.1%.

The accompanying market listing differs slightly. According to predictionbubbles.net, Claude is priced at 43.3%, Gemini at 40.1% and ChatGPT at 10.2%. Both sets of figures show the same ordering: a narrow Claude lead over Gemini and substantially lower expectations for ChatGPT.

The limits of the snapshot

PredictionBubbles says it refreshes prices from Kalshi and Polymarket every 15 minutes. The supplied material does not establish the timing of the accompanying listing relative to the publication snapshot, so the differences cannot reliably be described as a market move.

The figures reflect traders’ expectations about the eventual outcome, rather than an independent assessment of AI quality. Neither Claude nor Gemini is priced above 50% in either snapshot, leaving the leader short of a market-implied majority probability.

The excerpt also omits the contract’s criteria for determining the best AI, along with its market-specific volume, liquidity and open interest. Those gaps limit what can be concluded about both the meaning of the outcome and the trading support behind the prices.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The lead is narrow: Both snapshots put Claude first, but Gemini remains close enough that the prices do not indicate a decisive favorite.
  • ChatGPT trails materially: Its 10.1% publication-snapshot probability and 10.2% accompanying listing place it well below the two leaders.
  • Different readings are not a verified trend: Without aligned timestamps or price history, the supplied figures do not establish momentum.
  • Settlement criteria matter: Interpreting this market requires the contract’s definition of the winning outcome, which is not included in the excerpt.
AIKalshiPredictionMarkets

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/

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